Ag Market Commentary

Front month corn futures trading has midday prices fractionally to 1 3/4 cents weaker. Corn futures traded briefly in the green earlier, and remain 5+ cents off the session’s lows. USDA announced a 1.432 MMT corn sale to Mexico, split with 891k for 2020/21 delivery, and 541k for 21/22. Private exporters also sold 140,000 MT of corn to unknown. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 2.244 MMT of corn sold on the week ending 10/22. That was 22% higher wk/wk, well above analyst estimates and up 308% from the same week last year. The top buyers were, in order, unknown, Mexico, and Japan. Shipments were 18% lighter on the week, but with 29 mbu shipped were still 49% above the same week last year. Sorghum bookings were 60,838 MT for the week. That was down from 281k LW but above the 56k from last year. China and unknown were the only buyers listed. Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Canada also purchased a combined 68k MT of 21/22 sorghum. USDA’s Ag Attache sees Brazil’s 2020/21 corn output at 48 MMT and exports at 33 million. That is 2 MMT and 1 MMT below USDA’s official estimates respectively.

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.99 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn is at $4.02 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents,

May 21 Corn is at $4.04 1/4, down 1 cent,

Jul 21 Corn is at $4.05, down 3/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Beans are working back higher from early session losses. The deffered months are 1 to 2 1/4 cents higher at midday, while fractional to 2 1/2 cent losses remain on the board for nearby contracts. In soymeal, futures are $1.20 to $1.80 higher. BO futures are 39 to 42 points in the red so far. The weekly Export Sales report listed 1.62 MMT of bean bookings for the week ending 10/22. That was down 27% wk/wk, but in-line with estimates and up 80% yr/yr. China and Mexico were the top soybean purchasers on the week. For soymeal, USDA showed 199k MT booked. That was on the low end of estimates but up 11% yr/yr. Bean oil bookings were 80% below the same week last year with just 5,971 MT booked.

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $10.54 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans are at $10.52 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans are at $10.41 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

May 21 Soybeans are at $10.38, up 1 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 Soybean Meal is at $378.50, up $1.80

Dec 20 Soybean Oil is at $33.01, down $0.41

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Thursday’s wheat futures complex is mostly lower at midday, save for a fractional gain in Dec HRS. The other front month spring wheat futures are fractionally to 3 1/4 cents weaker. SRW wheat is trading 2 3/4 to 6 cents lower at midday with 21/22 contracts down the hardest. HRW futures are 1 to 1 3/4 cents weaker. USDA reported 743,176 MT of wheat bookings for the week ending 10/22. That was above estimates, 102% above LW and up 50% yr/yr. South Korea, Mexico, and Japan were the top destinations in the report. Exports from the same report were 230% higher wk/wk with 442,535 MT (16.26 mbu) shipped. Accumulated exports from weekly data is running 2.6% above last season’s pace with 10.632 MMT shipped MYTD.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat is at $6.06, down 2 3/4 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat is at $5.42 1/4, down 1 cent,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.52 1/4, up 1/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

October live cattle futures, which expire tomorrow, are 80 cents higher at $106.65. The other front months are up triple digits. For the last trading day of October feeders, the remaining contracts are worth $135.95 at midday. The other front months are also trading in the black with gains from 32 cents to $1.30. The 10/27 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $133.32, down by 32 cents. Cash sales on Wednesday remained light, but mostly $105-106. Beef export sales were reported at 18,853 MT for the week ending 10/22. That was down from 21.7k MT LW but still 19.8% higher yr/yr. Beef shipments are 666,564 MT for the year through 10/22. That outpaces 2019 by 1.5%. USDA’s wholesale boxed beef prices were stronger in the AM update. Choice boxes were $1.50 higher and Select boxes were up $1.99. USDA estimated the week’s cattle slaughter at 350,000 head through Wednesday. That was 10,000 head lower wk/wk but up 3,000 from the same week last year.

Dec 20 Cattle are at $106.500, up $1.825,

Feb 21 Cattle are at $109.350, up $1.650,

Apr 21 Cattle are at $112.650, up $1.275,

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle are at $135.200, up $1.300

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle are at $130.300, up $0.350

Mar 21 Feeder Cattle are at $129.850, up $0.325

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Front month lean hog futures are adding 47 to 82 cents to the downside at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index for the 27th was $1.20 lower at $76.27. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for this AM was delayed from packer submission errors. The Wednesday PM price was $61.76. The National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $89.56 in the AM report, $5.04 higher. Bellies were the only primal cut quoted lower, and hams were the biggest mover. USDA’s Export Sales report had 28,971 MT of pork bookings on the week ending 10/22. Mexico and Japan were the top buyers, with Chinese business only accounting for 8.8% of the total. Pork exports were 14.5% above the same week last year with 37k MT. Accumulated shipments are 1.558 MMT, up 25% yr/yr, with 581,482 MT (37.3%) to China alone. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter at 1.471 million head through Wednesday. That compares to 1.457 million head last week and 1.459 million from the same week last year.

Dec 20 Hogs are at $65.600, down $0.775,

Feb 21 Hogs are at $65.475, down $0.725

Apr 21 Hogs are at $68.175, down $0.575

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Thursday cotton trading has futures another 16 to 34 points weaker, with Dec down the most. Upland cotton export sales from USDA’s weekly update were 288,693 RBs. That was 27% above LW and 105% higher yr/yr. Sales to the PRC were 28% of the total with 81,394 RBs. Cotton exports from the report were 228,801 RBs bringing the MY total to 2.93 million. USDA’s Spot Cotton Quotations report showed 3,045 bales sold at an average price of 65.42 cents/lb on 10/28. The week’s sales on The Seam were 5,031 bales at a wtd average price of 67.67 cents/lb through Tuesday. The Cotlook A index for the 28th was 5 points higher at 78.40 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 55.71 cents/lb, which will be updated after the close.

Dec 20 Cotton is at 69.83, down 34 points,

Mar 21 Cotton is at 70.81, down 22 points

May 21 Cotton is at 71.44, down 26 points

Jul 21 Cotton is at 71.93, down 23 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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